White Vanning For No Apparent Reason

Such horrifying tales are common in Sri Lanka, where 26 years of ethnic conflict ended with the defeat of the Tamil Tigers in 2009. In the past century the country has also experienced two Marxist insurgencies in the south, and several anti-Tamil pogroms. In May Mangala Samaraweera, the foreign minister, admitted that it had one of the world’s largest caseloads of missing people. The armed forces, the Tamil Tigers and other insurgents are all to blame.

Figures vary hugely, depending on the source. The UN puts Sri Lanka second only to Iraq, with 5,731 outstanding cases. But Dhana Hughes of Durham University, who has studied the two southern insurgencies, estimates that thousands vanished during the second one alone, in the late 1980s. Under the authoritarian Mahinda Rajapaksa, president from 2005 to 2015, who defeated the Tamil Tigers, snatches like that of Mr Sundararaj were so common that they were dubbed “white-vanning”. Not only terrorism suspects but political opponents were targets. Some, like Mr Sundararaj, were taken for no apparent reason. Thousands more went missing from war zones.

"Sri Lanka's missing people: Refusing to give up hope," The Economist, August 6th-  August 12th, 2016, Accessed on August 10th, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21703404-new-government-tries-give-certainty-grieving-relatives-refusing-give-up-hope

The old chaos. The normal madness.

Against Democracy

Empirical work generally shows that participating in politics makes us worse: meaner, more biased, more angry. Ideally, I argue, we’d want to minimize our degree of political participation. Further, I examine about twelve major arguments for the claim that we’re owed the right to vote, and find them all lacking. In the end, the right to vote isn’t so much about giving individuals power over themselves, but power over others. The problem is that because individuals matter so little, most individuals use what little power they have unwisely. As a result, democracies tend to make bad decisions. Against the third chair, I suggest that epistocracy—a constitutional, republican form of government in which political power is to some degree, by law, apportioned according to competence—may outperform democracy.

[...]

The best places to live right now are almost all liberal democracies. So, the point isn’t to argue that democracy is a disaster. But it’s not the end of history either. In my view, democracy has the same kind of value a hammer has. It’s an instrument for producing just and efficient outcomes, according to procedure-independent standards of justice. If we can find a better hammer, we should feel free to use it.

[...]

Most of us think a jury owes the defendant (or owes the rest of us) a competent decision. They should decide a criminal trial by 1) being aware of the relevant facts, 2) processing those facts in a rational way, and 3) deciding on good faith rather than out of prejudice, malice, or bias. Similarly, I argue, any group that wields political power must act out competently and in good faith. Just as it would be unjust to enforce a jury decision if the jurors paid no attention to the fact and decided on whim, it would be unjust to enforce a vote made out of ignorance, misinformation, or whimsy.

[...]

I use [the terms Hobbits, Hooligans and Vulcans] to describe three classes of voters. In the Lord of the Rings, Hobbits are simply folk who don’t care much about the outside world, and just want to eat, drink, and be merry. The political analogue would be a person who doesn’t care much about politics, doesn’t have strong opinions, doesn’t know much, and doesn’t participate much. Roughly half of Americans are political hobbits. Think the typical non-voter.

Hooligans are the rabid sports fans of politics. Consider: Soccer hooligans are pretty well informed about soccer, but they are biased and mean. They tend to be nasty toward fans from other teams. They only accept information that makes their team look good. Political hooligans are like that about Team Republican or Team Democrat. They have more information, and they participate frequently. But they are biased, and only accept evidence that confirms their own pre-existing views. They tend to think anyone who disagrees with them is mean or stupid. Roughly half of Americans are political hooligans. Think your typical activist or party member.

Vulcans are dispassionate, scientific thinkers. They have high knowledge, but are also aware of what they don’t know. They change their minds when the evidence calls for it. In the US, hardly anyone is a Vulcan.

Most political theories that defend democracy inadvertently do so by imagining how democracy would work if only we were all Vulcans (or on our way to becoming Vulcans). But we’re not Vulcans; we’re hobbits and hooligans. And so many proposals for making democracy better actually make it worse. For example, democratic deliberation not only fails to deliver the results political theorist say it would, but backfires.

Liese, Debra. "Jason Brennan: Justice Isn't 'Whatever Democracy Decides,'" Princeton University Press Blog, Accessed on August 9th, 2016, http://blog.press.princeton.edu/2016/08/01/jason-brennan-justice-isnt-whatever-democracy-decides/

This is from an interview with Jason Brennan about his upcoming book, Against Democracy. 

Pre-ordered.

R>G=BS?

Mr. Piketty hypothesized that income inequality has risen because returns on capital—such as profits, interest and rent that are more gleanings of the rich than the poor—outpaced economic growth.

The evidence modern capitalism foments inequality, the former adviser to French Socialist Party candidate Ségolène Royal argued, was in capital’s rising share of income at the expense of labor’s contribution over the last four decades.

But Mr. Piketty’s thesis, posed by the French economist in his controversial 2013 tome “Capital in the Twenty-First Century,” isn’t proved by historical data, says International Monetary Fundeconomist Carlos Góes.

“There is little more than some apparent correlations the reader can eyeball in charts,” Mr. Góes says in a new paper published by the IMF. “While rich in data, the book provides no formal empirical testing for its theoretical causal chain.”

Mr. Góes tested the thesis against three decades of data from 19 advanced economies. “I find no empirical evidence that dynamics move in the way Piketty suggests.”

In fact, for three-quarters of the countries he studied, inequality actually fell when capital returns accelerated faster than output.

Those findings support previous work by Daron Acemoglu of theMassachusetts Institute of Technology and political scientistJames Robinson, now of the University of Chicago, suggesting Mr. Piketty’s thesis was far too simplistic for the complexities of real-world economies that are affected by politics and technology.

Mr. Góes says his study also provides evidence that Mr. Piketty’s assumption that saving rates remain stable is flawed. Rather, the data shows changes in the savings rate are likely to offset most of the effects of an increase in capital share of national income.

Talley, Ian. "'No Empirical Evidence' for Thomas Piketty's Inequality, IMF Economist Argues," The Wall Street Journal., Real Time Economics, August 5, 2016, Accessed on August 8, 2016, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/08/05/no-empirical-evidence-for-thomas-pikettys-inequality-theory-imf-economist-argues/

I'd Like to Believe

New research by Harvard economist Dale Jorgenson offers a cheerier outlook for both them and economic growth. 

His new study, which breaks down the forces propelling U.S. growth since 1947—the year the transistor was invented—and projects them forward to 2024, anticipates a boom in low-skilled work that rekindles economic growth to the tune of 2.49% a year from now till then, a little above the 2.34% experienced from 1990 to 2014. 

Those workers will fill service jobs in a growing economy, he suggests.

While the average quality of the labor force will begin to flat-line, the number of hours worked will rebound as employment-participation rates flick back to near where they were before the Great Recession, the paper says.

Creighton, Adam. "How Low-Skilled Workers Could Rescue the World Economy," The Wall Street Journal., Real Economics Blog, Accessed on August 3, 2016, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/08/02/how-low-skilled-workers-could-rescue-the-u-s-economy/

I'd like to believe it but you just can't predict in complex systems like a world economy. Such hubris to think you can. And we all know what my man Taleb has to say about economists and their projections. 

Her History Books Told Her That They Were Always So

Miss R. The gentleman neither looks nor talks like a bad man - Not a very bad man; as men go.  

As men go!- Poor Miss Rawlins, thought I - And dost thou know, how men go? 

Cl. Oh madam, you know him not! - He can put on the appearance of an angel of light; but has a black, a very black heart!- 

Poor I! - 

Miss R. I could not have thought it, truly!- But men are very deceitful nowadays!

Nowadays! - a fool! - Have not her history books told her that they were always so? 

Richardson, Samuel. Clarissa. New York: Penguin Classics, 2004, 790.

What emerges from this initial reading of Clarissa is how pessimistic Richardson is about human nature. There's so much rudeness, violence and indecency in this novel. It paints a picture of an ultimately corrupted humanity by means of the brutal ruination of its innocent title character. Lovelace, head corrupter, sums it up succinctly: "human nature is such a well-known rogue."

Helpful coincidence then that I've been reading so much John Gray recently. Perfect compliment to Richardson. 

On Proverbs

Proverbs . . . are the wisdom of nations and ages collected into a small compass.

Richardson, Samuel. Clarissa. New York: Penguin Classics, 2004, 606.

What the Justice of Heaven May Inflict

Who knows what the justice of Heaven may inflict on us in order to convince us that we are not out of the reach of misfortune?

Richardson, Samuel. Clarissa. New York: Penguin Classics, 2004, 333.

Bro, It's All Good

Some of the products cater to niche interests. You can consume “with a good conscious [sic]”, promises one vendor for his “ethically sourced” THC chocolate, which costs 13% more than the ordinary, immoral stuff. 

"Buying drugs online: Shedding light on the dark web," The Economist, July 16th-22nd 2016, Volume 420 Number 8998, Accessed on July 19, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/international/21702176-drug-trade-moving-street-online-cryptomarkets-forced-compete

Important Life Goals

A 2007 survey by the Pew Research Center found that 51 percent of eighteen- to twenty-five-year-olds said their most or second most important life goal was to become famous. Sixty-four percent said their number one goal was to become rich.

Sales, Nancy Jo. American Girls: Social Media and the Secret Life of Teenagers. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2016, 26.

A 2016 thought by Brian E. Denton believes that 100% of them are by now bitterly disappointed.

Economics is Not a Science

The mountain of algebra in economic research is supposedly meant for clarification and rigour, but is too often deployed for obfuscation.

"If economists reformed themselves: A less dismal Science," The Economist, July 16th-22nd 2016, Volume 420 Number 8998, 12 ("The world if," annual special report), Accessed on July 16, 2016, http://worldif.economist.com/article/12134/less-dismal-science

The American Teenager on Sexism and Feminism

"What's sexism?" asked a girl in Williamsburg, Virginia. "Is that when somebody likes sex?" When I asked her and her friends if they'd ever heard of feminism, another girl said, "Is that when a boy acts like a girl?"

Sales, Nancy Jo. American Girls: Social Media and the Secret Life of Teenagers. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2016, 19.

Uncertainty of Personal Hearsay

I fancy, my dear, however, that there would hardly be a guilty person in the world, were each suspected or accused person to tell his or her story, and be allowed any degree of credit.

Richardson, Samuel. Clarissa. New York: Penguin Classics, 2004, 136.

Clarissa the Cosmopolitan

And yet, in my opinion, the world is but one great family; originally it was so; what then is this narrow selfishness that reigns in us, but relationship remembered against relationship forgot?

Richardson, Samuel. Clarissa. New York: Penguin Classics, 2004, 62.

O, the Humanity!

[F]lawed, intermittently lucid animals whose minds are stuffed with nonsense and delusion.

Gray, John. The Soul of the Marionette. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2015, 155.

The Problem of Evil, Ancient and Modern

The idea of evil as it appears in modern secular thought is an inheritance from Christianity. To be sure, rationalists have repudiated the idea; but it is not long before they cannot do without it. What has been understood as evil in the past, they insist, is error - a product of ignorance that human beings can overcome. Here they are repeating a Zoroastrian theme, which was absorbed into later versions of monotheism: the belief that 'as the "lord of creation" man is at the forefront of the contest between the powers of Truth and Untruth.' But how to account for the fact that humankind is deaf to the voice of reason? At this point the rationalists invoke sinister interests - wicked priests, profiteers from superstition, malignant enemies of enlightenment, secular incarnations of the forces of evil.

As so often is the case, secular thinking follows a pattern dictated by religion while suppressing religions' most valuable insights. Modern rationalists reject the idea of evil while being obsessed by it. Seeing themselves as embattled warriors in a struggle against darkness, it has not occurred to them to ask why humankind if so fond of the dark. They are left with the same problem of evil that faces religion. The difference is that religious believers know they face an insoluble difficulty, while secular believers do not.

Aware of the evil themselves, traditional believers know it cannot be expelled from the world by human action. Lacking this saving insight, secular believers dream of creating a higher species. They have not noticed the fatal flaw in their schemes: any such species will be created by actually existing human beings.

Gray, John. The Soul of the Marionette. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2015, 18-19.

The Piety of the Pensioner

In the mostly Muslim north of the country, men may take up to four wives (so long as they obey the Koranic injunction to treat all equally). Often the younger wives are not yet 18. When a husband wants to trade one of his spouses for a younger model, he need only repeat the words “I divorce you” three times to be freed. In 2008 one pensioner split from 82 of his 86 partners to put himself back on the right side of Islamic law.

"Divorce in Nigeria: Rings fall apart," The Economist, July 9th, 2016, Accessed on July 11, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21701780-official-statistics-vastly-understate-nigerias-divorce-rate-rings-fall-apart 

The Chaos Highly Organized

The human animal is not an imperfect embodiment of some higher order in things, existing apart from the world or slowly evolving within it. 'Man is the chaos highly organized, but liable to revert to chaos at any moment.' The world is not a harmony we dimly perceive. 'The eyes, the beauty of the world, have been organized out of the faeces. Man returns to dust. So does the face of the world to primeval cinders.' Moralists and logicians tell us their laws are not just human conventions - they describe something independent of human beings, something more absolute. For Hulme, however, 'The absolute is not to be described as perfect, but if existent as essentially imperfect, chaotic and cinder-like. (Even this view is not ultimate, but merely designed to satisfy temporary human analogies and wants.)' People talk of humans evolving, as if the views of the world humans take up and leave behind are developing towards one that will be all inclusive. But world-views are like gardens, easily destroyed by bad weather. 'The unity of Nature is an extremely artificial and fragile bridge, a garden net.' Human ideas are temporary clearances in the waste.

Gray, John. The Silence of Animals. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013, 133-34.

Planning in the Pokey

There was once a zealous official who used party-speak to name each of his five children: Planning, Policy, Guideline, Direction and Completion.

"Bad planning: A bigwig purged," The Economist, July 9th, 2016, Accessed on July 9, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/china/21701807-bigwig-purged

Great names. And I love the unforeseen Hayekian parable: Planning went on to become one of the highest ranking members of the Chinese Communist Party to be convicted of corruption. 

The Justifications of Le Bien Publique

[H]is intellect supplied him with grounds for moral comfort. The thought that reassured Rastoptchin was not a new one. Ever since the world has existed and men have killed one another, a man has never committed such a crime against his fellow without consoling himself with the same idea. That idea is le bien publique, the supposed public good of others. To a man not swayed by passion this good never seems certain; but a man who has committed such a crime always knows positively where that public good lies. And Rastoptchin now knew this.

Tolstoy, Leo (2015-08-24). War and Peace (Kindle Locations 24321-24326).  . Kindle Edition. 

All the Horrors of Terrorism

One has but to admit menace to public tranquility and every sort of action is justified. 

All the horrors of terrorism were based only on anxiety for public tranquility.

Tolstoy, Leo. War and Peace. Translated by Constance Garnett, Kindle edition.

How little things change. 

In Cases of Defense

In cases of defense, 'tis best to weigh/ The enemy more mighty than he seems. 

Shakespeare, William. Henry V. New York: Simon & Schuster Folger Shakespeare Library, 1995, 71.

On the Filter Bubble

Social media can isolate people from viewpoints they disagree with. Eli Pariser, an internet activist, calls this the “filter bubble”. Researchers at Indiana University’s Network Science Institute who analysed links shared on Twitter and searches on AOL, a web portal, showed that the sites reached from social media are much less diverse than those reached from a search engine. Pablo Barberá, formerly of SMaPP and soon to join the University of Southern California, who examined the political Twitterspheres in America, Germany and Spain, found they were indeed polarised, particularly in America.

"Tracking protest movements: A new kind of weather," The Economist, Accessed on March 27, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21695192-social-media-now-play-key-role-collective-action-new-kind-weather

This is one of the reasons I do not get my news from social media. I like to get a diverse set of views. Generally, in fact, I don't much care for social media at all and think it may actually be a bad thing in many respects. I'd be curious to know if anyone social scientists have looked into whether or not social media is a kind of emotional accelerant. I'd be willing to bet it is. 

Smokin'!

Simone de Beauvoir was “the prettiest Existentialist you ever saw”, according to the New Yorker in 1947. Her companion, Jean-Paul Sartre was no looker, but he smoked a mean Gauloise.

"Existentialism: Smoky and the bandits," The Economist, Accessed March 25, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21695369-fun-and-philosophy-paris-smokey-and-bandits?frsc=dg%7Ca

Something to Read for the Despot Shout-Downers

To be held to rigid rules of justice for the sake of others, develops the feelings and capacities which have the good of others for their object. But to be restrained in things not affecting their good, by their mere displeasure, develops nothing valuable, except such force of character as may unfold itself in resisting the restraint.

[...] 

Even despotism does not produce its worst effects, so long as Individuality exists under it; and whatever crushes individuality is despotism, by whatever name it may be called, and whether it professes to be enforcing the will of God or the injunctions of men.

Mill, John Stuart. "On Individuality, As One of The Elements of Well-Being." In Individualism: A Reader edited by George H. Smith and Marilyn Moore. Washington, D.C.: Individualism.org a Project of the Cato Institute, 2015.

Too often these days we read of instances, particularly on our college campuses, of groups so certain of the righteousness and correctness of their vision that, by means of obnoxious disruption, they preclude others from speaking. It's a troublesome development and highly illiberal. These are usually, though not always, people of the left. I couldn't help but think of them today while reading chapter three of John Stuart Mill's On Liberty in Individualism: A Reader. Maybe they can rekindle some of their liberal tradition by re-reading Mill. And why should they? Because, as Mill writes, the only way for true progress to flourish is with a system of liberty where all voices are heard. Even those we disagree with because, 

There is always need of persons not only to discover new truths, and point out when what were once truths are true no longer, but also to commence new practices, and set the example of more enlightened conduct, and better taste and sense in human life. This cannot well be gainsaid by anybody who does not believe that the world has already attained perfection in all its ways and practices.

Mill, John Stuart. "On Individuality, As One of The Elements of Well-Being." In Individualism: A Reader edited by George H. Smith and Marilyn Moore. Washington, D.C.: Individualism.org a Project of the Cato Institute, 2015.

His Bugler

“You can always tell when the king is here.”Donald Trump’s longtime butler on his boss. The butler also revealed that Mr Trump wears a red baseball cap if he is in a bad mood, but cheers up if “Hail to the Chief” is played by a bugler as he enters his Mar-a-Lago estate.

"The campaigns: Heard on the trail," The Economist, March19th-25th 2016, Volume 418 Number 8981, 27,  accessed on March 21, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21695086-heard-trail

Smells Like Team Spirit

Teams have become the basic building-blocks of organisations. Recruitment ads routinely call for “team players”. Business schools grade their students in part on their performance in group projects. Office managers knock down walls to encourage team-building. Teams are as old as civilisation, of course: even Jesus had 12 co-workers.

"Schumpeter: Team spirit," The Economist, March 19th-25th 2016, Volume 418 Number 8981, 71, Accessed on March 20, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21694962-managing-them-hard-businesses-are-embracing-idea-working-teams

Worries Over Unintended Consequences of Central Bank Action in Financial Markets

Despite the Bank of Japan’s efforts to push down its currency and jump-start the economy with negative interest rates, the yen is up 8% this year and is at its strongest level against the dollar since October 2014. European central bankers are having similar problems containing the strength of the euro and other currencies.

These difficulties are a reminder that the long stretch of exceptionally low rates in response to the 2008 financial crisis has created market distortions that may be difficult for central bankers to contain.

This disconnect could produce more volatility in financial markets. Even if investors can predict what actions central banks are likely to take, they are having a hard time predicting how markets will react, potentially sparking a pullback from riskier assets, such as emerging markets or commodities.

[...]

A number of government bonds are yielding below zero in places like Japan, the eurozone and Switzerland. Money managers said this has added to concerns that central banks are distorting the normal market function and that investors are finding it difficult to fairly value financial assets.

Analysts said central banks need to pay attention to the unintended fallout on markets and banks from tools such as negative interest rates.

Zeng, Min and Iosebashvili. "Global Currencies Soar, Defying Central Bankers," The Wall Street Journal., Friday, March 18, 2106, A1, Accessed on March 18, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-currencies-soar-defying-central-bankers-1458258134