White Vanning For No Apparent Reason

Such horrifying tales are common in Sri Lanka, where 26 years of ethnic conflict ended with the defeat of the Tamil Tigers in 2009. In the past century the country has also experienced two Marxist insurgencies in the south, and several anti-Tamil pogroms. In May Mangala Samaraweera, the foreign minister, admitted that it had one of the world’s largest caseloads of missing people. The armed forces, the Tamil Tigers and other insurgents are all to blame.

Figures vary hugely, depending on the source. The UN puts Sri Lanka second only to Iraq, with 5,731 outstanding cases. But Dhana Hughes of Durham University, who has studied the two southern insurgencies, estimates that thousands vanished during the second one alone, in the late 1980s. Under the authoritarian Mahinda Rajapaksa, president from 2005 to 2015, who defeated the Tamil Tigers, snatches like that of Mr Sundararaj were so common that they were dubbed “white-vanning”. Not only terrorism suspects but political opponents were targets. Some, like Mr Sundararaj, were taken for no apparent reason. Thousands more went missing from war zones.

"Sri Lanka's missing people: Refusing to give up hope," The Economist, August 6th-  August 12th, 2016, Accessed on August 10th, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21703404-new-government-tries-give-certainty-grieving-relatives-refusing-give-up-hope

The old chaos. The normal madness.

Against Democracy

Empirical work generally shows that participating in politics makes us worse: meaner, more biased, more angry. Ideally, I argue, we’d want to minimize our degree of political participation. Further, I examine about twelve major arguments for the claim that we’re owed the right to vote, and find them all lacking. In the end, the right to vote isn’t so much about giving individuals power over themselves, but power over others. The problem is that because individuals matter so little, most individuals use what little power they have unwisely. As a result, democracies tend to make bad decisions. Against the third chair, I suggest that epistocracy—a constitutional, republican form of government in which political power is to some degree, by law, apportioned according to competence—may outperform democracy.

[...]

The best places to live right now are almost all liberal democracies. So, the point isn’t to argue that democracy is a disaster. But it’s not the end of history either. In my view, democracy has the same kind of value a hammer has. It’s an instrument for producing just and efficient outcomes, according to procedure-independent standards of justice. If we can find a better hammer, we should feel free to use it.

[...]

Most of us think a jury owes the defendant (or owes the rest of us) a competent decision. They should decide a criminal trial by 1) being aware of the relevant facts, 2) processing those facts in a rational way, and 3) deciding on good faith rather than out of prejudice, malice, or bias. Similarly, I argue, any group that wields political power must act out competently and in good faith. Just as it would be unjust to enforce a jury decision if the jurors paid no attention to the fact and decided on whim, it would be unjust to enforce a vote made out of ignorance, misinformation, or whimsy.

[...]

I use [the terms Hobbits, Hooligans and Vulcans] to describe three classes of voters. In the Lord of the Rings, Hobbits are simply folk who don’t care much about the outside world, and just want to eat, drink, and be merry. The political analogue would be a person who doesn’t care much about politics, doesn’t have strong opinions, doesn’t know much, and doesn’t participate much. Roughly half of Americans are political hobbits. Think the typical non-voter.

Hooligans are the rabid sports fans of politics. Consider: Soccer hooligans are pretty well informed about soccer, but they are biased and mean. They tend to be nasty toward fans from other teams. They only accept information that makes their team look good. Political hooligans are like that about Team Republican or Team Democrat. They have more information, and they participate frequently. But they are biased, and only accept evidence that confirms their own pre-existing views. They tend to think anyone who disagrees with them is mean or stupid. Roughly half of Americans are political hooligans. Think your typical activist or party member.

Vulcans are dispassionate, scientific thinkers. They have high knowledge, but are also aware of what they don’t know. They change their minds when the evidence calls for it. In the US, hardly anyone is a Vulcan.

Most political theories that defend democracy inadvertently do so by imagining how democracy would work if only we were all Vulcans (or on our way to becoming Vulcans). But we’re not Vulcans; we’re hobbits and hooligans. And so many proposals for making democracy better actually make it worse. For example, democratic deliberation not only fails to deliver the results political theorist say it would, but backfires.

Liese, Debra. "Jason Brennan: Justice Isn't 'Whatever Democracy Decides,'" Princeton University Press Blog, Accessed on August 9th, 2016, http://blog.press.princeton.edu/2016/08/01/jason-brennan-justice-isnt-whatever-democracy-decides/

This is from an interview with Jason Brennan about his upcoming book, Against Democracy. 

Pre-ordered.

R>G=BS?

Mr. Piketty hypothesized that income inequality has risen because returns on capital—such as profits, interest and rent that are more gleanings of the rich than the poor—outpaced economic growth.

The evidence modern capitalism foments inequality, the former adviser to French Socialist Party candidate Ségolène Royal argued, was in capital’s rising share of income at the expense of labor’s contribution over the last four decades.

But Mr. Piketty’s thesis, posed by the French economist in his controversial 2013 tome “Capital in the Twenty-First Century,” isn’t proved by historical data, says International Monetary Fundeconomist Carlos Góes.

“There is little more than some apparent correlations the reader can eyeball in charts,” Mr. Góes says in a new paper published by the IMF. “While rich in data, the book provides no formal empirical testing for its theoretical causal chain.”

Mr. Góes tested the thesis against three decades of data from 19 advanced economies. “I find no empirical evidence that dynamics move in the way Piketty suggests.”

In fact, for three-quarters of the countries he studied, inequality actually fell when capital returns accelerated faster than output.

Those findings support previous work by Daron Acemoglu of theMassachusetts Institute of Technology and political scientistJames Robinson, now of the University of Chicago, suggesting Mr. Piketty’s thesis was far too simplistic for the complexities of real-world economies that are affected by politics and technology.

Mr. Góes says his study also provides evidence that Mr. Piketty’s assumption that saving rates remain stable is flawed. Rather, the data shows changes in the savings rate are likely to offset most of the effects of an increase in capital share of national income.

Talley, Ian. "'No Empirical Evidence' for Thomas Piketty's Inequality, IMF Economist Argues," The Wall Street Journal., Real Time Economics, August 5, 2016, Accessed on August 8, 2016, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/08/05/no-empirical-evidence-for-thomas-pikettys-inequality-theory-imf-economist-argues/

I'd Like to Believe

New research by Harvard economist Dale Jorgenson offers a cheerier outlook for both them and economic growth. 

His new study, which breaks down the forces propelling U.S. growth since 1947—the year the transistor was invented—and projects them forward to 2024, anticipates a boom in low-skilled work that rekindles economic growth to the tune of 2.49% a year from now till then, a little above the 2.34% experienced from 1990 to 2014. 

Those workers will fill service jobs in a growing economy, he suggests.

While the average quality of the labor force will begin to flat-line, the number of hours worked will rebound as employment-participation rates flick back to near where they were before the Great Recession, the paper says.

Creighton, Adam. "How Low-Skilled Workers Could Rescue the World Economy," The Wall Street Journal., Real Economics Blog, Accessed on August 3, 2016, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/08/02/how-low-skilled-workers-could-rescue-the-u-s-economy/

I'd like to believe it but you just can't predict in complex systems like a world economy. Such hubris to think you can. And we all know what my man Taleb has to say about economists and their projections. 

Her History Books Told Her That They Were Always So

Miss R. The gentleman neither looks nor talks like a bad man - Not a very bad man; as men go.  

As men go!- Poor Miss Rawlins, thought I - And dost thou know, how men go? 

Cl. Oh madam, you know him not! - He can put on the appearance of an angel of light; but has a black, a very black heart!- 

Poor I! - 

Miss R. I could not have thought it, truly!- But men are very deceitful nowadays!

Nowadays! - a fool! - Have not her history books told her that they were always so? 

Richardson, Samuel. Clarissa. New York: Penguin Classics, 2004, 790.

What emerges from this initial reading of Clarissa is how pessimistic Richardson is about human nature. There's so much rudeness, violence and indecency in this novel. It paints a picture of an ultimately corrupted humanity by means of the brutal ruination of its innocent title character. Lovelace, head corrupter, sums it up succinctly: "human nature is such a well-known rogue."

Helpful coincidence then that I've been reading so much John Gray recently. Perfect compliment to Richardson. 

On Proverbs

Proverbs . . . are the wisdom of nations and ages collected into a small compass.

Richardson, Samuel. Clarissa. New York: Penguin Classics, 2004, 606.

What the Justice of Heaven May Inflict

Who knows what the justice of Heaven may inflict on us in order to convince us that we are not out of the reach of misfortune?

Richardson, Samuel. Clarissa. New York: Penguin Classics, 2004, 333.

Bro, It's All Good

Some of the products cater to niche interests. You can consume “with a good conscious [sic]”, promises one vendor for his “ethically sourced” THC chocolate, which costs 13% more than the ordinary, immoral stuff. 

"Buying drugs online: Shedding light on the dark web," The Economist, July 16th-22nd 2016, Volume 420 Number 8998, Accessed on July 19, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/international/21702176-drug-trade-moving-street-online-cryptomarkets-forced-compete

Important Life Goals

A 2007 survey by the Pew Research Center found that 51 percent of eighteen- to twenty-five-year-olds said their most or second most important life goal was to become famous. Sixty-four percent said their number one goal was to become rich.

Sales, Nancy Jo. American Girls: Social Media and the Secret Life of Teenagers. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2016, 26.

A 2016 thought by Brian E. Denton believes that 100% of them are by now bitterly disappointed.

Economics is Not a Science

The mountain of algebra in economic research is supposedly meant for clarification and rigour, but is too often deployed for obfuscation.

"If economists reformed themselves: A less dismal Science," The Economist, July 16th-22nd 2016, Volume 420 Number 8998, 12 ("The world if," annual special report), Accessed on July 16, 2016, http://worldif.economist.com/article/12134/less-dismal-science

The American Teenager on Sexism and Feminism

"What's sexism?" asked a girl in Williamsburg, Virginia. "Is that when somebody likes sex?" When I asked her and her friends if they'd ever heard of feminism, another girl said, "Is that when a boy acts like a girl?"

Sales, Nancy Jo. American Girls: Social Media and the Secret Life of Teenagers. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2016, 19.

Uncertainty of Personal Hearsay

I fancy, my dear, however, that there would hardly be a guilty person in the world, were each suspected or accused person to tell his or her story, and be allowed any degree of credit.

Richardson, Samuel. Clarissa. New York: Penguin Classics, 2004, 136.

Clarissa the Cosmopolitan

And yet, in my opinion, the world is but one great family; originally it was so; what then is this narrow selfishness that reigns in us, but relationship remembered against relationship forgot?

Richardson, Samuel. Clarissa. New York: Penguin Classics, 2004, 62.

O, the Humanity!

[F]lawed, intermittently lucid animals whose minds are stuffed with nonsense and delusion.

Gray, John. The Soul of the Marionette. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2015, 155.

The Problem of Evil, Ancient and Modern

The idea of evil as it appears in modern secular thought is an inheritance from Christianity. To be sure, rationalists have repudiated the idea; but it is not long before they cannot do without it. What has been understood as evil in the past, they insist, is error - a product of ignorance that human beings can overcome. Here they are repeating a Zoroastrian theme, which was absorbed into later versions of monotheism: the belief that 'as the "lord of creation" man is at the forefront of the contest between the powers of Truth and Untruth.' But how to account for the fact that humankind is deaf to the voice of reason? At this point the rationalists invoke sinister interests - wicked priests, profiteers from superstition, malignant enemies of enlightenment, secular incarnations of the forces of evil.

As so often is the case, secular thinking follows a pattern dictated by religion while suppressing religions' most valuable insights. Modern rationalists reject the idea of evil while being obsessed by it. Seeing themselves as embattled warriors in a struggle against darkness, it has not occurred to them to ask why humankind if so fond of the dark. They are left with the same problem of evil that faces religion. The difference is that religious believers know they face an insoluble difficulty, while secular believers do not.

Aware of the evil themselves, traditional believers know it cannot be expelled from the world by human action. Lacking this saving insight, secular believers dream of creating a higher species. They have not noticed the fatal flaw in their schemes: any such species will be created by actually existing human beings.

Gray, John. The Soul of the Marionette. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2015, 18-19.

The Piety of the Pensioner

In the mostly Muslim north of the country, men may take up to four wives (so long as they obey the Koranic injunction to treat all equally). Often the younger wives are not yet 18. When a husband wants to trade one of his spouses for a younger model, he need only repeat the words “I divorce you” three times to be freed. In 2008 one pensioner split from 82 of his 86 partners to put himself back on the right side of Islamic law.

"Divorce in Nigeria: Rings fall apart," The Economist, July 9th, 2016, Accessed on July 11, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21701780-official-statistics-vastly-understate-nigerias-divorce-rate-rings-fall-apart 

The Chaos Highly Organized

The human animal is not an imperfect embodiment of some higher order in things, existing apart from the world or slowly evolving within it. 'Man is the chaos highly organized, but liable to revert to chaos at any moment.' The world is not a harmony we dimly perceive. 'The eyes, the beauty of the world, have been organized out of the faeces. Man returns to dust. So does the face of the world to primeval cinders.' Moralists and logicians tell us their laws are not just human conventions - they describe something independent of human beings, something more absolute. For Hulme, however, 'The absolute is not to be described as perfect, but if existent as essentially imperfect, chaotic and cinder-like. (Even this view is not ultimate, but merely designed to satisfy temporary human analogies and wants.)' People talk of humans evolving, as if the views of the world humans take up and leave behind are developing towards one that will be all inclusive. But world-views are like gardens, easily destroyed by bad weather. 'The unity of Nature is an extremely artificial and fragile bridge, a garden net.' Human ideas are temporary clearances in the waste.

Gray, John. The Silence of Animals. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013, 133-34.

Planning in the Pokey

There was once a zealous official who used party-speak to name each of his five children: Planning, Policy, Guideline, Direction and Completion.

"Bad planning: A bigwig purged," The Economist, July 9th, 2016, Accessed on July 9, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/china/21701807-bigwig-purged

Great names. And I love the unforeseen Hayekian parable: Planning went on to become one of the highest ranking members of the Chinese Communist Party to be convicted of corruption. 

The Justifications of Le Bien Publique

[H]is intellect supplied him with grounds for moral comfort. The thought that reassured Rastoptchin was not a new one. Ever since the world has existed and men have killed one another, a man has never committed such a crime against his fellow without consoling himself with the same idea. That idea is le bien publique, the supposed public good of others. To a man not swayed by passion this good never seems certain; but a man who has committed such a crime always knows positively where that public good lies. And Rastoptchin now knew this.

Tolstoy, Leo (2015-08-24). War and Peace (Kindle Locations 24321-24326).  . Kindle Edition. 

All the Horrors of Terrorism

One has but to admit menace to public tranquility and every sort of action is justified. 

All the horrors of terrorism were based only on anxiety for public tranquility.

Tolstoy, Leo. War and Peace. Translated by Constance Garnett, Kindle edition.

How little things change. 

In Cases of Defense

In cases of defense, 'tis best to weigh/ The enemy more mighty than he seems. 

Shakespeare, William. Henry V. New York: Simon & Schuster Folger Shakespeare Library, 1995, 71.

On the Filter Bubble

Social media can isolate people from viewpoints they disagree with. Eli Pariser, an internet activist, calls this the “filter bubble”. Researchers at Indiana University’s Network Science Institute who analysed links shared on Twitter and searches on AOL, a web portal, showed that the sites reached from social media are much less diverse than those reached from a search engine. Pablo Barberá, formerly of SMaPP and soon to join the University of Southern California, who examined the political Twitterspheres in America, Germany and Spain, found they were indeed polarised, particularly in America.

"Tracking protest movements: A new kind of weather," The Economist, Accessed on March 27, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21695192-social-media-now-play-key-role-collective-action-new-kind-weather

This is one of the reasons I do not get my news from social media. I like to get a diverse set of views. Generally, in fact, I don't much care for social media at all and think it may actually be a bad thing in many respects. I'd be curious to know if anyone social scientists have looked into whether or not social media is a kind of emotional accelerant. I'd be willing to bet it is. 

Smokin'!

Simone de Beauvoir was “the prettiest Existentialist you ever saw”, according to the New Yorker in 1947. Her companion, Jean-Paul Sartre was no looker, but he smoked a mean Gauloise.

"Existentialism: Smoky and the bandits," The Economist, Accessed March 25, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21695369-fun-and-philosophy-paris-smokey-and-bandits?frsc=dg%7Ca

Something to Read for the Despot Shout-Downers

To be held to rigid rules of justice for the sake of others, develops the feelings and capacities which have the good of others for their object. But to be restrained in things not affecting their good, by their mere displeasure, develops nothing valuable, except such force of character as may unfold itself in resisting the restraint.

[...] 

Even despotism does not produce its worst effects, so long as Individuality exists under it; and whatever crushes individuality is despotism, by whatever name it may be called, and whether it professes to be enforcing the will of God or the injunctions of men.

Mill, John Stuart. "On Individuality, As One of The Elements of Well-Being." In Individualism: A Reader edited by George H. Smith and Marilyn Moore. Washington, D.C.: Individualism.org a Project of the Cato Institute, 2015.

Too often these days we read of instances, particularly on our college campuses, of groups so certain of the righteousness and correctness of their vision that, by means of obnoxious disruption, they preclude others from speaking. It's a troublesome development and highly illiberal. These are usually, though not always, people of the left. I couldn't help but think of them today while reading chapter three of John Stuart Mill's On Liberty in Individualism: A Reader. Maybe they can rekindle some of their liberal tradition by re-reading Mill. And why should they? Because, as Mill writes, the only way for true progress to flourish is with a system of liberty where all voices are heard. Even those we disagree with because, 

There is always need of persons not only to discover new truths, and point out when what were once truths are true no longer, but also to commence new practices, and set the example of more enlightened conduct, and better taste and sense in human life. This cannot well be gainsaid by anybody who does not believe that the world has already attained perfection in all its ways and practices.

Mill, John Stuart. "On Individuality, As One of The Elements of Well-Being." In Individualism: A Reader edited by George H. Smith and Marilyn Moore. Washington, D.C.: Individualism.org a Project of the Cato Institute, 2015.

His Bugler

“You can always tell when the king is here.”Donald Trump’s longtime butler on his boss. The butler also revealed that Mr Trump wears a red baseball cap if he is in a bad mood, but cheers up if “Hail to the Chief” is played by a bugler as he enters his Mar-a-Lago estate.

"The campaigns: Heard on the trail," The Economist, March19th-25th 2016, Volume 418 Number 8981, 27,  accessed on March 21, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21695086-heard-trail

Smells Like Team Spirit

Teams have become the basic building-blocks of organisations. Recruitment ads routinely call for “team players”. Business schools grade their students in part on their performance in group projects. Office managers knock down walls to encourage team-building. Teams are as old as civilisation, of course: even Jesus had 12 co-workers.

"Schumpeter: Team spirit," The Economist, March 19th-25th 2016, Volume 418 Number 8981, 71, Accessed on March 20, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21694962-managing-them-hard-businesses-are-embracing-idea-working-teams

Worries Over Unintended Consequences of Central Bank Action in Financial Markets

Despite the Bank of Japan’s efforts to push down its currency and jump-start the economy with negative interest rates, the yen is up 8% this year and is at its strongest level against the dollar since October 2014. European central bankers are having similar problems containing the strength of the euro and other currencies.

These difficulties are a reminder that the long stretch of exceptionally low rates in response to the 2008 financial crisis has created market distortions that may be difficult for central bankers to contain.

This disconnect could produce more volatility in financial markets. Even if investors can predict what actions central banks are likely to take, they are having a hard time predicting how markets will react, potentially sparking a pullback from riskier assets, such as emerging markets or commodities.

[...]

A number of government bonds are yielding below zero in places like Japan, the eurozone and Switzerland. Money managers said this has added to concerns that central banks are distorting the normal market function and that investors are finding it difficult to fairly value financial assets.

Analysts said central banks need to pay attention to the unintended fallout on markets and banks from tools such as negative interest rates.

Zeng, Min and Iosebashvili. "Global Currencies Soar, Defying Central Bankers," The Wall Street Journal., Friday, March 18, 2106, A1, Accessed on March 18, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-currencies-soar-defying-central-bankers-1458258134

The City Mouse is Better

Cities have long been the most productive places to do business, because they bring firms, customers and workers closer together. A banker in New York is only a taxi ride away from her clients; a new restaurant there immediately has 8.4m potential customers on its doorstep. Where clever people congregate, innovation results.

"Varieties of inequality: The great divergence," The Economist, March 12th-18th 2016, Volume 418 Number 8980, 25, accessed on March 17, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21694356-inequality-between-states-has-risen-most-past-15-years-americas-most-successful-cities. 

Wilhelm von Humboldt on Individuality

Reason cannot desire for man any other condition than that in which each individual not only enjoys the most absolute freedom of developing himself by his own energies, in his perfect individuality, but in which external nature even is left unfashioned by any human agency, but only receives the impress given to it by each individual of himself and his own free will, according to the measure of his wants and instincts, and restricted only by the limits of his powers and his rights. 

From this principle it seems to me, that Reason must never yield aught save what is absolutely required to preserve it. It must therefore be the basis of every political system, and must especially constitute the starting-point of the inquiry which at present claims our attention.

Humboldt, Wilhelm von. "On the Individual Man, And the Highest Ends of His Existence." In Individualism: A Reader edited by George H. Smith and Marilyn Moore, Washington, D.C.: Libertarianism.org a Project of The Cato Institute, 2015.

Memory and Magic in the Early Portions of Elena Ferrante's My Brilliant Friend

Blood. In general it came from wounds only after horrible curses and disgusting obscenities had been exchanged. That was the standard procedure. My father, though he seemed to me a good man, hurled continuous insults and threats if someone didn't deserve, as he said, to be on the face of the earth. He especially had it in for Don Achille. He always had something to accuse him of, and sometimes I put my hands over my ears in order not to be too disturbed by his brutal words. When he spoke of him to my mother he called him "your cousin" but my mother denied that blood tie (there was a very distant relationship) and added to the insults. Their anger frightened me, I was frightened above all by the thought that Don Achille might have ears so sensitive that he could hear insults even from far away. I was afraid that he might come and murder them. 

Ferrante, Elena. My Brilliant Friend. Translated by Ann Goldstein. New York: Europa Editions, 2012, 35.

That's a paragraph from the first book of Elena Ferrante's much lauded Neapolitan Novels. 

Believe the hype. 

So far I'm only about fifty pages deep into the novel and already I love it. This passage comes from a section of the book about childhood and Goldstein's translation expertly captures the evocative melancholy naturally associated with reminiscence on that subject. You can see it here with the narrator's attachment of supernatural qualities to a mysterious neighbor. This kind of piquant mixing of memory and magic is sprinkled throughout this opening section, though not so much as to shift the novel into boring melodrama. I assume that as the narrator grows older she'll begin to make more sense of the world and therefore adopt a more natural narrative style but I hope, through the sepia-toned, soft-focused filter of recollection, at least some hint of this kind of prose remains. 

What Americans Want

Americans want a President they can respect, not one who is a constant source of turmoil.

"Trump and the Protesters," The Wall Street Journal., Monday, March 14, 2016, A18, Accessed on March 14, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-and-the-protesters-1457909062

Pobrecito Pierre the Pessimist

He suffered from an unlucky faculty - common to many men, especially Russians - the faculty of seeing and believing in the possibility of good and truth, and at the same time seeing too clearly the evil and falsity of life to be capable of taking a serious part in it. Every sphere of activity was in his eyes connected with evil and deception. Whatever he tried to be, whatever he took up, evil and falsity drove him back again and cut him off from every field of energy.

Tolstoy, Leo. War and Peace. Translated by Constance Garnett. New York: Modern Library Paperback Edition, 2002, 612.

What Epictetus Would Tell Rostov

Nikolay Rostov was standing meanwhile at his post waiting for the wolf. He was aware of what must be taking place within the copse from the rush of the pack coming closer and going further away, from the cries of the dogs, whose notes were familiar to him, from the nearness, and then greater remoteness, and sudden raising of the voices of the huntsmen. He knew that there were both young and also old wolves in the enclosure. He knew the hounds had divided into two packs, that in one place they were close on the wolf, and that something had gone wrong. Every second he expected the wolf on his side. He made a thousand different suppositions of how and at what spot the wolf would run out, and how he would set upon it. Hope was succeeded by despair. Several times he prayed to God that the wolf would rush out upon him. He prayed with that feeling of passion and compunction with which men pray in moments of intense emotion due to trivial causes. "Why, what is it to Thee," he said to God, "to do this for me?  I know Thou art great and that it's a sin to pray to Thee to do this, but for God's sake do make the old wolf come out upon me, and make Karay fix his teeth in his throat and finish him before the eyes of 'uncle,' who is looking this way." A thousand times over in that half-hour, with intent, strained, and uneasy eyes Rostov scanned the thickets at the edge of the copse with two scraggy oaks standing up above the undergrowth of aspen, and the ravine with its overhanging bank, and "uncle's" cap peering out from behind a bush on the right. "No, that happiness is not to be," thought Rostov, "yet what would it cost Him!" It's not to be! I'm always unlucky, at cards, in war, and everything!" Austerlitz, Dolohov flashed in distinct but rapid succession through his imagination. "Only once in my life to kill an old wolf; I ask for nothing beyond!" he thought, straining eyes and ears, looking from left to right, and back again, and listening to the slightest fluctuations in the sounds of the dogs. 

Tolstoy, Leo. War and Peace. Translated by Constance Garnett. New York: Modern Library Paperback Edition, 2002, 567. 

War and Peace is my favorite novel. I read it every year. One of the reasons is that it's the most human novel, the novel that best reflects upon the reader, with a simple clarity, the human spirit and condition. In this passage, for instance, we find an all too recognizable encounter one has with the self: that awful stress born of the gap between hope and reality. I find in Rostov's despair something very familiar. I'm also reminded of the stoic remedies offered for situations like this. Epictetus writes that, "The origin of distress is wishing for something that does not come about." Instead of engaging in such distressful desire, Epictetus counsels to, "Seek not for events to happen as you wish but rather for events to happen as they do and your life will go smoothly." 

Eventually Rostov chills out. I think it's in large part because he comes to understand this sentiment. If only we all could.

The One Truths

[T]he endless multiplicity of men's minds . . . leads to no truth ever being seen by two persons alike.

Tolstoy, Leo. War and Peace. New York: Random House Modern Library Paperback Edition, 2002 , 492.

Plenteous Tears to Drown the World

All springs reduce their currents to mine eyes,/ That I, being governed by the watery moon,/ May send forth plenteous tears to drown the world.

Shakespeare, William. Richard III. New York: Simon & Schuster Folger Shakespeare Library, 1996, 109.

#electioncyclemood

For thou hast made the happy Earth thy hell

Shakespeare, William. Folger Shakespeare Library Richard III. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996, 23.

What Junk Indicates

The revival is noteworthy because the junk-bond market is widely watched for clues about the state of the U.S. economy. Companies issuing junk debt have less financial flexibility to weather a downturn than higher-rated firms, often making the performance of their bonds an indicator of broader economic health.

Cherney, Mike and Goldfarb, Sam. "Junk-Bond Rebound Signals Easing Fear," The Wall Street Journal., Tuesday, March 8, 2016, A1, Accessed on March 8, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/junk-bond-rebound-signals-easing-fear-1457395260 

Buy Chinese

A study of more than a century's worth of investment returns shows that emerging markets deliver their best results not when hopes are highest, but after they break investors' hearts.

Zweig, Jason. "Lessons From a Frontier Market: U.S.," The Wall Street Journal., Thursday, January 28, 2016, C1, Accessed on January 28, 2016, http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/01/27/market-crashes-stock-scandals-lessons-from-the-u-s-frontier/

Roman Public Service

The greatest service to the Republic was to defeat a foreign enemy.

Goldsworthy, Adrian. Augustus: First Emperor of Rome. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2014, 173.

German Debt, German Guilt

In German, "debt" and "guilt" are the same word, Schuld, and many Germans equate the two.

Nissen, Madeleine. "German Savers Find New Taste for Risk," The Wall Street Journal., Tuesday, January 26, 2016, C1, Accessed on January 26, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-cautious-savers-find-new-taste-for-risk-1453734098

Proscription is No Joke

Once they reached Rome, the murders became more open and formal as the Sullan practice of proscriptions was revived. Two boards listing names were posted in the Forum - allegedly one reserved solely for senators - and those on them lost all legal protection and so could be killed by the triumvirs' men or anyone else eager to claim the reward of a share of their property. This was paid on presentation of the severed head of the victim, which was then fastened to the Rostra. The rest of the corpse was to be left where it fell or tossed into the River Tiber with the City's rubbish.

Goldsworthy, Adrian. Augustus: First Emperor of Rome. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2014, 129.

And in the End the Power You Take is Equal to the Strength You Make

In the end, armies trumped ideals.

Goldsworthy, Adrian. Augustus: First Emperor of Rome. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2014, 125.

A North Korean Staple

North Korea’s official media said scientists in the country had invented an alcoholic drink that does not cause hangovers. It is said to be made of a type of ginseng and glutinous rice. Implausible claims are a North Korean staple.

"The world this week: Politics," The Economist, Jan 22-30, 2016, Accessed on January 21, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21688942-politics-week

The Triumph of Optimism Over Experience

"A wise candidate did his best to please as many people as possible. He and his friends were expected to entertain and praise both individuals and groups - the equestrian order, the publicani, the less well-off classes, and members of the various guilds in the City and voting divisions in the Assemblies. It was vital to be seen as generous and willing to help, particularly in return for support. As Quintus Cicero put it: 'people want not only promises . . . but promises made in a lavish and complimentary way.' They were also bound to ask for favours. 'Whatever you cannot perform, decline gracefully or, better yet, don't decline. A good man will do the former, a good candidate the latter.' Better to promise wherever possible, since 'if you refuse you are sure to rouse antagonism at once, and in more people . . . . Especially as they are much angrier with those who refuse them than with a man who . . . has reason for not fulfilling his promise, although he would do so if he possibly could.' Elections pledges were just as important in the first century BC as they are today, and voters similarly inclined to let optimism triumph over experience."

Goldsworthy, Adrian. Augustus: First Emperor of Rome. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2014, 41.

Indian Inequality

In Kolkata, Arijit Saha says that narrow lanes and potholes around his house mean he can't keep his red Jaguar XFR at home. Instead, he parks it in an empty lot off an unpaved road, where the $75,000 car shares space with a bicycle rickshaw and a group of homeless people.

Sugden, Joanna. "India's Superrich Have Supercars, but Nowhere to Drive," The Wall Street Journal., Tuesday January 19, 2016, A1, Accessed on January 19, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-superrich-have-supercars-but-nowhere-to-drive-them-1453156090

Bolkonsky Goes a Little Bazarov

"“The one thing for which I thank God is that I didn't kill that man,” said Pierre. 

“Why so?” said Prince Andrey. “To kill a vicious dog is a very good thing to do, really.” 

“No, to kill a man is bad, wrong …” 

“Why is it wrong?” repeated Prince Andrey; “what's right and wrong is a question it has not been given to men to decide. Men are for ever in error, and always will be in error, and in nothing more than in what they regard as right and wrong.” “

What does harm to another man is wrong,” said Pierre, feeling with pleasure that for the first time since his arrival Prince Andrey was roused and was beginning to speak and eager to give expression to what had made him what he now was. 

“And who has told you what is harm to another man?” he asked. 

“Harm? harm?” said Pierre; “we all know what harms ourselves.” 

“Yes, we know that, but it's not the same harm we know about for ourselves that we do to another man,” said Prince Andrey, growing more and more eager, and evidently anxious to express to Pierre his new view of things. He spoke in French. “I only know two very real ills in life, remorse and sickness. There is no good except the absence of those ills. To live for myself so as to avoid these two evils: that's the sum of my wisdom now.”"

Tolstoy, Leo. War and Peace. Translated by Constance Garnett. Amazon Digital Services, Inc., August 24, 2015.

Dumb as Rock

Nickelback's ranking atop the rock-intelligence charts was boosted by their 2008 hit "Something in Your Mouth." The song registered with a 4.2 grade reading level, better than the second to third-grade rock average.

Germano, Sara and Hong, Nicole. "Who Likes Nickelback? Nobody, Except for Millions," The Wall Street Journal., Saturday/Sunday, January 16-17, 2016, A1, Accessed on January 16, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/who-likes-nickelback-nobody-except-for-millions-1452894762

Spot the Tautology (and the Brilliant Idea)

Meanwhile, Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, reshuffled his cabinet. Luis Salas, a left-wing sociologist who does not think that printing money causes inflation, will be in charge of economic policy.

"The world this week: Politics," The Economist, Jan. 16th-22nd, Accessed on January 15, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21688452-politics-week 

Say No to Sports Subsidies

The National Football League on Tuesday announced that the St. Louis Rams would move to the Los Angeles suburb of Inglewood in a deal that called for no public funding toward the planned $1.9 billion stadium.

Similar attitudes have affected deals for numerous projects in the state. In Northern California, the Golden State Warriors are planning a $1 billion basketball arena without public funding, while the 49ers’ new stadium in Santa Clara had relatively little public aid.

And in Oakland, city officials on Wednesday reiterated that no public funding would be devoted to building a stadium to keep the Oakland Raiders from walking away.

[...]

[A] wealth of academic studies [shows] that stadiums and arenas are poor investments when it comes to economic development. Without pro teams, would-be fans spend money on other local entertainment, economists have found, while sports facilities rarely spur real-estate development that wouldn’t have happened anyway.

Brown, Eliot and Carlton, Jim and Futterman, Matthew. "Cities Rethink Sports-Team Deals," The Wall Street Journal., Thursday, January 14, 2016, B1, Accessed on January 14, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/cities-rethink-sports-stadium-deals-1452734069

The Bordeaux Bandit Strikes Again

A 1990 Château Pétrus. A 2005 Château Mouton Rothschild. A 2010 Château Mouton Rothschild. A 2009 Château Lafite Rothschild. And multiple bottles of Opus One.

These are just a few of the wines allegedly stolen by Scott Deluca, the man who officials in a New Jersey’s prosecutor’s office have dubbed the “Bordeaux Bandit.”

Law-enforcement officials in the New York region said they have spent several months pursuing a man accused of stealing high-end wines during heists that have attracted the attention of area oenophiles.

Teague, Lettie. "The Painstaking Pursuit of Region's 'Bordeaux Bandit'," The Wall Street Journal., Wednesday January 13, 2016, A15, Accessed on January 13, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/uncorking-the-city-police-pursue-the-bordeaux-bandit-1452641127

The whole article is worth reading. Great crime story.

How Is This Even Possible?

For one thing, Americans are far bigger couch potatoes than Europeans, watching 5 hours and 45 minutes of TV a day on average, compared with less than four hours in most of Europe's largest countries, according to Bernstein Research.

Hagey, Keach and Futterman, Matthew. "Discovery Bets Big on Sports," The Wall Street Journal, Tuesday, January 12, 2016, A1 Accessed on Tuesday January 12, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/discovery-communications-wants-to-be-the-espn-of-europe-1452567094

You Say You Want A Revolution?

The sum of his discourse was to this effect: “That about forty years ago, certain persons went up to Laputa, either upon business or diversion, and, after five months continuance, came back with a very little smattering in mathematics, but full of volatile spirits acquired in that airy region: that these persons, upon their return, began to dislike the management of every thing below, and fell into schemes of putting all arts, sciences, languages, and mechanics, upon a new foot. To this end, they procured a royal patent for erecting an academy of projectors in Lagado; and the humour prevailed so strongly among the people, that there is not a town of any consequence in the kingdom without such an academy. In these colleges the professors contrive new rules and methods of agriculture and building, and new instruments, and tools for all trades and manufactures; whereby, as they undertake, one man shall do the work of ten; a palace may be built in a week, of materials so durable as to last for ever without repairing. All the fruits of the earth shall come to maturity at whatever season we think fit to choose, and increase a hundred fold more than they do at present; with innumerable other happy proposals. The only inconvenience is, that none of these projects are yet brought to perfection; and in the mean time, the whole country lies miserably waste, the houses in ruins, and the people without food or clothes. By all which, instead of being discouraged, they are fifty times more violently bent upon prosecuting their schemes, driven equally on by hope and despair: that as for himself, being not of an enterprising spirit, he was content to go on in the old forms, to live in the houses his ancestors had built, and act as they did, in every part of life, without innovation: that some few other persons of quality and gentry had done the same, but were looked on with an eye of contempt and ill-will, as enemies to art, ignorant, and ill common-wealth’s men, preferring their own ease and sloth before the general improvement of their country.”

Swift, Jonathan. Gulliver's Travels. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994, 176-77.

A Brobdingnagian Question and Observation

Above all, he was amazed to hear me talk of a mercenary standing army, in the midst of peace, and among a free people. He said, if we were governed by our own consent, in the persons of our representatives, he could not imagine of whom we were afraid, or against whom we were to fight; and would hear my opinion, whether a private man’s house might not be better defended by himself, his children, and family, than by half-a-dozen rascals, picked up at a venture in the streets for small wages, who might get a hundred times more by cutting their throats? 

[...]

He was perfectly astonished with the historical account gave him of our affairs during the last century; protesting it was only a heap of conspiracies, rebellions, murders, massacres, revolutions, banishments, the very worst effects that avarice, faction, hypocrisy, perfidiousness, cruelty, rage, madness, hatred, envy, lust, malice, and ambition, could produce.

His majesty, in another audience, was at the pains to recapitulate the sum of all I had spoken; compared the questions he made with the answers I had given; then taking me into his hands, and stroking me gently, delivered himself in these words, which I shall never forget, nor the manner he spoke them in: My little friend Grildrig, you have made a most admirable panegyric upon your country; you have clearly proved, that ignorance, idleness, and vice, are the proper ingredients for qualifying a legislator; that laws are best explained, interpreted, and applied, by those whose interest and abilities lie in perverting, confounding, and eluding them. I observe among you some lines of an institution, which, in its original, might have been tolerable, but these half erased, and the rest wholly blurred and blotted by corruptions. It does not appear, from all you have said, how any one perfection is required toward the procurement of any one station among you; much less, that men are ennobled on account of their virtue; that priests are advanced for their piety or learning; soldiers, for their conduct or valour; judges, for their integrity; senators, for the love of their country; or counsellors for their wisdom. As for yourself, continued the king, who have spent the greatest part of your life in travelling, I am well disposed to hope you may hitherto have escaped many vices of your country. But by what I have gathered from your own relation, and the answers I have with much pains wrung and extorted from you, I cannot but conclude the bulk of your natives to be the most pernicious race of little odious vermin that nature ever suffered to crawl upon the surface of the earth. 

Swift, Jonathan. Gulliver's Travels. Oxford: Oxford World's Classics, 1994, 124-26.

Considering the Miseries

Their notions relating to the Duties of Parents and Children differ extremely from ours. For, since the Conjunction of Male and Female is founded upon the great Law of Nature, in order to propagate and continue the Species; the Lilliputians will needs have it, that Men and Women are joined together like other Animals, by the Motives of Concupiscence; and that their Tenderness towards their Young, proceedeth from the like natural Principle: For which Reason they will never allow, that a Child is under any Obligation to his Father for begetting him, or to his Mother for brining him into the World; which, considering the Miseries of human Life, was neither a Benefit in itself, nor intended so by his Parents, whose Thoughts in their Love-encounters were otherwise employed. 

Swift, Jonathan. Gulliver's Travels. Oxford: Oxford World's Classics, 1994, 47-8. 

A Show of Power

MOBUTU SESE SEKO, the late dictator of Zaire, used to reshuffle his cabinet every six months or so to show ministers who was boss. (To reinforce the point, he sometimes also slept with their wives.) 

"The EU's rotating presidency: Stop the music,"  The Economist, Jan. 9th-15th, Accessed on January 8, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21685454-every-six-months-council-european-union-gets-new-president-recipe

Shakespeare and the Stream of Time

The stream of time, which is continually washing the dissoluble fabrics of other poets, passes without injury by the adamant of Shakespeare.

Johnson, Samuel. King Lear. By William Shakespeare. New York: Signet Classic, 1998, 182.

Men of Time

[M]en/ Are as the time is.

Shakespeare, William. King Lear. New York: Signet Classic, 1998, 132.

Why Newborns Cry

When we are born, we cry that we are come/ To this great stage of fools. 

Shakespeare, William. King Lear. New York: Signet Classic, 1998, 117.

Like Monsters of the Deep

Humanity must perforce prey on itself,/ Like monsters of the deep. 

Shakespeare, William. King Lear. New York: Signet Classic, 1998, 101.

Suffering One, Suffering All

When we our betters see bearing our woes,/  We scarcely think our miseries our foes./ Who alone suffers suffers most i' th' mind,/ Leaving free things and happy shows behind;/ But then the mind much sufferance doth o'erskip/ When grief hath mates, and bearing friendship./ How light and portable my pain seems now. 

Shakespeare, William. King Lear. New York: Signet Classic, 1998, 88.

The Excellent Foppery of the World

This is the excellent foppery of the world, that when we are sick in fortune, often the surfeits of our own behavior, we make guilty of our disasters the sun, the moon, and stars; as if we were villains on necessity; fools by heavenly compulsion; knaves, thieves, and treachers by spherical predominance; drunkards, liars, and adulterers by an enforced obedience of planetary influence; and all that we are evil in, by a divine thrusting on. An admirable evasion of whoremaster man, to lay his goatish disposition on the charge of a star. My father compounded with my mother under the Dragon's Tail, and my nativity was under Ursa Major, so that it follows I am rough and lecherous. Fut! I should have been that I am, had the maidenliest star in the firmament twinkled on by bastardizing. 

Shakespeare, William. King Lear. New York: Signet Classics, 1998, 20.

Happy New Year

Happy New Year!